2024 Creighton Baseball

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Re: 2024 Creighton Baseball

Postby Jaybird » Sun May 12, 2024 10:05 am

cujaysfan wrote:
Didn't know Hendry's kid was there, but we're not learn on the job place.


But it "would be a solid story". So would hiring Tony LaRussa. Now that would be a solid story. Bobby Cox is still out there. Speaking of Bobbys, Bobby Valentine's between gigs. Some of you want darkhorses? Here's a darkhorse: Joe Torre. And since we're playing Fantasy Creighton Coaches, are we all that sure Craig Counsell is fully committed to the Cubs? After all, contracts are made to be broken. Let's give those guys a call. We could hire whichever one says yes fastest.

The corpse is still breathing. The classy thing to do would be to wait until the job comes open before we start handicapping which of all those qualified, experienced coaches with a proven track record of consistently winning, who are lined up out the door and down the block, Blossom will award the singular honor of leading a baseball program at a small, private cold-weather school in a weak baseball conference with little or no available NIl money back to the greatness we experienced a third of a century ago, and that some fans expect and demand.

That would be the classy thing. And then there's the thing we're doing.
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Re: 2024 Creighton Baseball

Postby Tdjay114 » Sun May 12, 2024 11:43 am

I'm pretty positive Ed doesn't read the underground so I'm sure it's fine I post my opinion on here, unless you're Ed's burner account.
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Re: 2024 Creighton Baseball

Postby Realhoops » Sun May 12, 2024 4:49 pm

JAYS WIN!!! Is the season saved yet?
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Re: 2024 Creighton Baseball

Postby Tdjay114 » Sun May 12, 2024 7:49 pm

Yes. Let's celebrate. In all seriousness, season ended when we didn't make the conference tournament. Our rpi moved up to 57 with today's win. We could probably win out and finish in the low 50s which shows how close this team was to being an at large with a few more big east wins and just being top 4. That's all it would've taken.
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Re: 2024 Creighton Baseball

Postby Tdjay114 » Tue May 14, 2024 2:05 pm

Jays win 2 to 1. Another midweek win. If only...
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Re: 2024 Creighton Baseball

Postby Tdjay114 » Wed May 15, 2024 1:31 pm

I realize we aren't getting in but for the sake of discussion and showing how close this team was/could have been to an at-large, if we just finished above .500 in the Big East:

Baseball America currently lists Indiana in Last Four In: they are 1 spot above us in the RPI.
Virginia Tech is in Last Four In: they are at 54 in the rpi but play at Virgina this weekend.
James Madison is listed as Last Four In: they sit at 47 but play at Troy this weekend. They are 1 game over .500 in their conference, which is the 5th ranked conference right ahead of the Pac 12. The Big East is right behind the Pac 12 in conference RPI.

D1baseball also lists Cal as Next Four Out: their rpi is behind ours at 66. They went 3-2 against Stanford but also swept Uconn in a three game series.

This is why this season has been so frustrating. This team was good enough to make a run and to be in the tournament.
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Re: 2024 Creighton Baseball

Postby Jaybird » Wed May 15, 2024 8:25 pm

But was it? Was this team ever really good enough to "make a run", or was that just an illusion that some people fell for?

The Big East coaches weren't fooled. They had us pegged for a tie for fourth in their pre-season poll. Back in February, they thought it was a coin flip whether we'd even make the tournament, and that was before our all-BE (one of only two Jays) ace, Cancellieri, got shut down. Including Dom, guys who threw nearly 80% of Creighton's innings in the Big East last year (a fairly crappy year in its own right) aren't here this year.

Servais had to overhaul the staff and he brought in a dozen new arms, seven of them transfers. I think it's safe to say we missed on all seven. One--Brenna--hasn't pitched at all. Two--Coborn and Gluth--have been practically invisible and haven't pitched in the BE. Primeaux and Trapp have given the Jays a combined total of just under 7 innings in BE play. The remaining two--Burke and Saner--have a combined ERA of 11.58 in 23 Big East innings. Think about that. Eleven. Five. Eight. And Ed keeps running them out there, I guess because he feels he doesn't have much choice. And, of course, Dom hasn't thrown even one pitch to a Big East hitter and isn't likely to now. In fact, our weekend rotation is now a true freshman, a converted reliever, and a very shaky transfer. Not one of those guys started a Big East game a year ago.

Last season (again, not a year that Creighton's going to exactly brag about on a banner at Daytrader Stadium), Jays pitchers gave up 22 homers in the Big East, or -8 when you compare it to the homers Jays hitters smashed. This year, that deficit's ballooned to -18; 30 homers yielded--so far--vs 12 we've hit. To me, that's huge. That means we're basically conceding two home runs, or, one more than we're likely to hit, in every Big East game. Not exactly a recipe for success.

Added to that mess, Jack Grace, our other all-Big East guy going into the season, has been limited by an injury. Last Big East season, his slash was .320/.388/.520. This year his numbers have fallen off a statistical cliff: 208/240/208. He had five homers and 17 RBIs in conference last season. This season: zero homers and four RBIs but, in fairness, he's played in less than half the Big East schedule.

Then, there's the mystery of Teddy Deters. He'll be forever beloved as the corndog killer, but he's sorta, kinda, disappeared in conference games. In noncon games, he's hitting .345 with 7 homers and 37 RBis. In the Big East, he's hitting .243 with two homers and six RBIs. Maybe he's hurting too, no idea, but he's really tailed off on the weekends these past couple months.

All of this isn't excuse-making for Ed. He has plenty of things to answer for, starting with how can a team with almost 50% turnover turn in almost a carbon copy of last season's late BE collapse (unless they just weren't very good to begin with and had been covering it up with a high school-level noncon sked), and how did we basically botch the recruiting on pitchers. You look at the resumes for some of the pitching transfers at their last stops and you have to just scratch your head. Maybe we were in desperation mode and had to take who we could get.

My point is, some fans (no need to name names; it's kind of obvious in at least one case) were naive and fell into the trap of inflated expectations based on that eye-popping early performance. That parade of stiffs--Mass Lowell, Coppin, Army, nebraska, etc.--lulled some among us into thinking this team must be really something. That wasn't fair or reasonable. I am surprised--hell, astonished-- that Big East baseball must be so much better than all those noncon schools we've been kicking around, but I don't know what other conclusion to draw. And the sad truth is, we're not as good as some people thought, and we really never were. Instead of claiming that this bunch under-performed, there's a better argument to be made that they're playing to their level, as painful as that is to say.

Oh, and I'm not sure we should pay much attention to the NCAA's RPI. The selection committee sure doesn't. They pretty much throw it out the window. I mean, come on, nebby can't be dislodged from the low 20s no matter how often they lose or who to. If I'm not mistaken, they got blown out at home by So Dak St last week and ended up moving up a spot by Monday. (EDIT: Just checked, and the cornflakes sit at 31 in the RPI. Still way inflated for my money, but the RPI is starting to make at least a tiny bit more sense. The committee will still ignore it, like they always do).
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Re: 2024 Creighton Baseball

Postby Tdjay114 » Wed May 15, 2024 9:45 pm

Solid, fair analysis. I'm aware of the pitching issues. But like you said, Ed and the staff brought in these pitchers. How do they miss on all of the pitchers? I also find it hard to believe that the big east is that much better than nebraska, coastal Carolina, Portland, and even a down Stanford.

Yes we've had injuries, but at any given time throughout this last 3 or 4 week stretch in the big east, we've had both of the nolans, teddy, canales, etc. Ed said it is one of the deepest teams he's had. We had enough depth and hitting, on paper, to be able to compete better in conference. Even when Will was healthy we lost in conference.

I don't think I had unrealistic expectations. I've talked to a lot of the parents throughout the year, and most of them felt this team was good enough to make a run despite the injuries.

To me, it's not unrealistic to expect to qualify for the conference tournament. And it is unacceptable not to qualify 2 years in a row especially in the big east. If our pitchers are good enough to shut down offenses like coastal and nebraska, the coaches ought to be able to figure out a rotation that can compete in the big east. And the coaches didn't do that.

From what I've read, the committee uses the rpi a great deal. They are the ones who wanted it tweaked ... with the various quads and road wins weighted.

And I had checked after nebraska's loss to sdsu, and nebraska dropped 8 spots with that loss.

Expecting to qualify for the conference tournament in a weaker conference isn't unrealistic or that lofty. If this team made prasco and went 0 and 2 or even 1 and 2, it would have been a regional team. And I wouldn't be as hard on Ed as I have been. But missing out 2 years in a row just really seems like the epitome of mediocrity.

We have 3 losses combined to nova and butler. They're awful. Koch blew a save against st. John's and he's a solid closer and one of our top bullpen arms. But we also had no run support that game.
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Re: 2024 Creighton Baseball

Postby Tdjay114 » Thu May 16, 2024 8:55 am

Fyi, for scoreboard watching purposes and for reference, Utah is 4th in the pac 12. The pac 12 is the 6th ranked rpi conference just ahead of the big east. D1 baseball has Utah in its last 4 in in yesterday's projections, and Utah is 74 in the rpi, 15 spots below us.
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Re: 2024 Creighton Baseball

Postby Jaybird » Thu May 16, 2024 10:36 am

Which means, of course, that D1 Baseball ignores the RPI, just like the selection committee does. Last year, #46 Cal-Irvine was left out, while #54 Arizona was picked as an at-large. They wanted Zona, they didn't want Irvine. (They won't leave them out this year). If the RPI is inconvenient, they don't use it.

The NCAA has a bracket projection at its website, courtesy of D1 Baseball. They predict St John's will get in as a 3 seed (in the Corvallis Regional). Xavier is nowhere to be found. Not even first four out. Currently, X is #26 in the NCAA RPI; the Johnnies are #56. When the RPI supports a selection they want to make anyway, maybe they refer to it. When it doesn't, they'll pretend it isn't even there.
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