vivid_dude wrote:mredle wrote:I believe Wednesday is the deadline for players to pull out of the NBA draft. That is apparently what Bowen has been waiting on. Coaches should know something by the end of the week. I don't understand people's impatience. Tugs can be a player that is a game changer recruiting-wise. The coaches have spent how many days pursuing him. If we aren't willing to do that will we ever sign top recruits? The coaches are in the best position to judge the situation both with respect to Bowen and the NOLA duo. We have a lot of the competition that have DQ'ed themselves, do we add our names to the list?
This is all reasonable. Good job! But one question for you (or anyone).
Would you rather have Jarreau/Gresham at 100% certainty or Bowen at 30% certainty? Knowing that if you keep waiting for Bowen, you'll almost certainly lose Jarreau/Gresham - is that worth it? Assume that this imperfect hypothetical is being presented to you - which do you choose?
Okay, I'll bite. First, Bowen (and or Waters), if combined, may be better individually than Jarreau or Gresham individually. It appears however that Jarreau and Gresham are still marketing themselves as a combination (all or nothing) choice. Bowen and Waters are better in combination in my opinion. You also have to factor in that Jarreau and Gresham do nothing for us next season, Bowen and/or Waters do. The coaches have more information than we do about the likelihood of picking off both. But let's say that the information the coaches have is that we are still serious contenders for Bowen. Let's also say for the sake of argument that Waters says he likes us but he also likes team X, but that if we get Bowen, he is all in with us. And let's say that my earlier speculation is correct and Bowen is waiting for the deadline for players to pull out of the NBA draft. If I think we have a reasonable chance of getting one or both of Bowen or Waters, I go for it even if the odds are against me. Greater risk for greater reward. I tell Jarreau and Gresham what we are doing and I hope that we are THEIR best option and they will wait. Worst case scenario is we end up with none of the 4. I would rather have none of the four than tell Bowen we have waited this long but we are getting out and signing the NOLA due and then an hour later hearing that he's made his decision to sign with Oregon and Waters says he's going to GU or team X.