NIL

[alum84]

Not bad, HDMD. The situation is already completely nuts, but it could still go in any number of directions, depending on:

What does the NCAA do? I'll answer that one: Nothing. The NCAA is a bit like the United Nations...all countries big and small get a vote, so nothing gets done.

What will Big Football do? Will they support a cap on NIL? Or will they just sever ties with the non-football schools entirely?

Will the major non-football basketball schools (BE, MW, maybe others) have a say in what happens? (Probably not._

What will the athletes do? I mentioned the four-year eligibility rule. And what about athletes in non-revenue sports? Will there be an attempt to unionize?

What will the fans do? As Ljay said, if the fans lose interest and the tv ratings plummet, does the whole system collapse?

For my part, maybe it's time to divorce athletics from universities entirely....I'm not sure any other country couples sports with higher education like we do. And as someone said, the whole idea of helping athletes earn a degree is a complete charade.

[go_jays]

For those of you who saw all the consequences of NIL with crystal-clear clarity (right), perhaps you will go on the record with where we will be 5 years from now. Or even 2? For instance, now that the one-time transfer rule has been successfully challenged in court, what about the 4-year eligibility rule? I mean, many (maybe most?) college students take more than 4 years to graduate. Why should athletes be held to a higher standard? Heck, I had a friend who took 8 years to graduate. (He finally got that degree though!) Could we see 30 year-old starters in a few years? It seems like NIL salaries are competitive enough to keep good players in college for years, except perhaps the sure fire NBA first-rounders. And remember....we'll be coming back to grade your forecasts a few years from now.

All bets are off... the cat is out of the bag and who knows if they'll ever catch it. This is a can of worms nobody really ever wanted to see. But it's open now.

Good luck coaches and admins. You're gonna need it.

[HandDownManDown]

Here’s another prediction: the first two ‘seasons’ are largely going to be used as CV builders so that the players (in hoops, anyway) maximize their payouts. The goal will shift from trying to make money in Europe or South America to squeezing the college years for everything they can get. And why wouldn’t you? Coming out of school with even 200k portends a far better life than starting at zero - that is if you assume there even will be a future that far down the road. But that’s a different story.

The first thing that’ll drive this will be an explosion of redshirting. Why burn your earning years in four when you can have five? This won’t be the MO of every kid naturally, there will be decisions made based on other criteria. However, if you ask me this sort of structure, once fleshed out, will be married to the ‘other criteria’ structure to form a hybrid where a school might get a discount if they do well in the ‘other’ category.

If you ask me, things will go in one of three directions: first, the cream of the crop will be looking for bags right out of college, which is already happening. ‘Salary’ type demands will be made while still in high school; it’s probably happening like this already but it’ll start earlier, and with demands matching the top transfers. This however is a small, elite level group.

Groups 2 and 3 are the résumé builders. Now, some of these freshmen are going to be taken on by top programs as fliers, this is group 2. No team needs 13 guys fighting for PT anyway, but they sure has heck need 13 (and more) for a decent practice. So, rather than attempt to fill the end of the bench with non-rotational portal guys, they’ll give the last three scholarships as fliers. These guys will head to a high major with the explicit understanding that they’re redshirting. Essentially, they’re auditioning to be kept for more than one year, but if they don’t they can leave with some money in their pocket, practice time development against the kinds of paid kids they hope to be in a few years, and a line on their résumé that will be helpful in landing at a decent mid major AND be something that can be used as a selling point when they leave the mid in search of a move up. It’s happening already; look at all the tweets talking about the guy in the portal who averaged 16 and 8 at Podunk U, and then there’s a line that says ‘began his career at Auburn’. That line is meant to signal to the big guns that there was something at the start that attracted a big name, and maybe all this guy was some seasoning and now he’s ready to step back into big boy basketball. That’s where this ‘one year flier’ program can pay off down the road.

Then there’s everyone else, who aren’t getting paid much of anything by the minimal paying schools. They’ll show up and redshirt, trying to learn the system, get bigger and stronger, and put themselves in a position to start if not right away then by their sophomore year. These three year cycles are going to be the norm at these schools and reverse the cycle you see now: the small but good mids you see on the Dance usually have strong senior play, but now the high majors will be the teams flaunting experience.

So, you can put this down as another prediction. We shall see if this has merit, but I can totally see it.

[Wizard of Westroads]

Now, some of these freshmen are going to be taken on by top programs as fliers, this is group 2. No team needs 13 guys fighting for PT anyway, but they sure has heck need 13 (and more) for a decent practice. So, rather than attempt to fill the end of the bench with non-rotational portal guys, they’ll give the last three scholarships as fliers.

Like Vice, Dotzler and Knox, eh?

[omajay]

I think it would be really interesting if there was transparency in NIL payments and budgets. Assume our budget is in the neighborhood of $3,000,000 (Jerry Carino, the long time beat writer covering Seton Hall reported earlier this year that "some BE schools have war chests in the neighborhood of $3 million."). Based on this budget, some of the individual figures and demands reported seem really high. I read where Fran McCaffery said Tony Perkins left Iowa because they couldn't pay $500M, and the speculation is Chucy will get a similar amount as Perkins (per the Wisconsin newspaper). The guard from Utah (Devion Smith) reportedly turned down $500,000 to stay at Utah. Those individual salaries don't seem to jive with a budget of $3 million. If you pay every starter $500,000, for example, you'd use up most of your $3 million budget. Then, you read where someone like Kalk could make $1 million. The numbers don't add up, and they certainly don't seem sustainable.

[HandDownManDown]

Now, some of these freshmen are going to be taken on by top programs as fliers, this is group 2. No team needs 13 guys fighting for PT anyway, but they sure has heck need 13 (and more) for a decent practice. So, rather than attempt to fill the end of the bench with non-rotational portal guys, they’ll give the last three scholarships as fliers.

Like Vice, Dotzler and Knox, eh?

To varying degrees. I heard from someone Vice had an uphill battle, and that was said shortly after he signed. I thought that was strange that we’d do that then but with a year of this behavior by us and other teams I can understand it better.

But they’d fit the profile. And it makes sense, right? This allows teams to pay only the base to the very end of the bench, and marshal resources for the guys who get all the PT. If you’re right in your guess you have someone useful, but if not then no harm done, that player gets a benefit from his year here as well.

[LJay]

Well, I posted somewhere that someone had a convo with McAndrew who said the CU base was $100,000 so these kids made out okay for their year of scout squad. I doubt Vice is getting $100,000 from North Texas or certainly no more than that.

[Chicagojayfan]

Now, some of these freshmen are going to be taken on by top programs as fliers, this is group 2. No team needs 13 guys fighting for PT anyway, but they sure has heck need 13 (and more) for a decent practice. So, rather than attempt to fill the end of the bench with non-rotational portal guys, they’ll give the last three scholarships as fliers.

Like Vice, Dotzler and Knox, eh?

true, although I've heard some things about Knox that make me think he's not necessarily in that category. He's a very good athlete and was on an upward trajectory his senior year of HS

[cujaysfan]

Not sure Dotzler belongs here.

Didn't RS, word was coaches wanted him to stay. Athletically and physically he looked like he belonged on floor...was very fast with good size.

The mental side just hadn't clicked yet, and I can't imagine that would not happen soon with a Dotzler.

[Chicagojayfan]

Not sure Dotzler belongs here.

Didn't RS, word was coaches wanted him to stay. Athletically and physically he looked like he belonged on floor...was very fast with good size.

The mental side just hadn't clicked yet, and I can't imagine that would not happen soon with a Dotzler.

I think we will continue to have guys that get a shot to be a developmental player for us and we've seen success there already - Green's a great example of a guy who redshirted and worked his way into playing the following year and who's future looks bright

We may have some guys who clearly aren't going to be BE players, but I think we will want a shot to play and develop within our system rather than going to a lower conference team for a couple of years to prove themselves

I liked what I saw of Dotzler and thought he could develop into a BE player someday, but I also understand the desire to get on the court and play a lot of minutes