Tournament Success

[JayPharmAlum]

Creighton trailed NC St by 9 in the second half last year before things started clicking. People forget how badly we were struggling in our tourney opener because we ended up a whistle away from a Final Four.

In a tournament setting, anything can happen. A 3 seed can lose to a 14 seed. Assume nothing.

[JacobPadilla]

Creighton trailed NC St by 9 in the second half last year before things started clicking. People forget how badly we were struggling in our tourney opener because we ended up a whistle away from a Final Four.

In a tournament setting, anything can happen. A 3 seed can lose to a 14 seed. Assume nothing.

This was largely the point of my comment on the previous page. I think we tend to romanticize last year's team because this year's struggles are fresher in our minds. For all the flaws/limitations this year's roster has, last year's had its own and the Jays overcame them to make a run.

This year's team is different than last year's, but I don't think it's dramatically better or worse. All the things we liked about last year's team that this year's seems to lack came with drawbacks as well. It's largely just going to come down to how well the team plays (see UConn Pt. 1 vs. Pt. 2).

[RyanHolmgren]

Yep, last year I felt like we could lose first round or make the Final Four. Nothing would've surprised me.

Feel mostly the same this year, except anywhere from second round to Final Four seems like the likely floor and ceiling. Of course, nothing is a sure bet in the tourney - especially after the 16/1 and 15/2 upsets of late.

[go_jays]

If you put any credence in Kenpom (I do), and we have to assume for the sake of this example that the higher seeded teams win their games... If we win our first game, theoretically, the weakest opponent we would see in the 2nd game would be TCU ranked 32 by Kenpom, with an ADJ EM of -17.32. We have an ADJ EM of -23.44. There is no home court advantage. So the "spread" would be .65 x -6.12 = 3.978. Or the Jays would be favored by 4. That's not a lot of points.

Now, remember, that's the weakest team we would see. If we were a 3, we'd see a 6 (remember, the assumption is the higher seed wins their games). The weakest 6 would be Texas Tech ranked 24 and an ADJ EM of -18.65. And .65 x -4.79 = -3.11... Jays by 3.

Point is... there just isn't much room for error. And it's actually pretty amazing that a team would go 6 straight wins against competition like this to win a National Championship.

[HandDownManDown]

Well we shouldn’t bank on playing a 15 seed again in the sweet 16. Also, with not winning a big east title in any sort of way, there should be a deep run for this season to have some sort of success

Not sure I’ve ever seen you say something positive.

You’re giving off Fusker troll vibes.

[Ethanfor3]

Creighton trailed NC St by 9 in the second half last year before things started clicking. People forget how badly we were struggling in our tourney opener because we ended up a whistle away from a Final Four.

In a tournament setting, anything can happen. A 3 seed can lose to a 14 seed. Assume nothing.

This was largely the point of my comment on the previous page. I think we tend to romanticize last year's team because this year's struggles are fresher in our minds. For all the flaws/limitations this year's roster has, last year's had its own and the Jays overcame them to make a run.

This year's team is different than last year's, but I don't think it's dramatically better or worse. All the things we liked about last year's team that this year's seems to lack came with drawbacks as well. It's largely just going to come down to how well the team plays (see UConn Pt. 1 vs. Pt. 2).

Jacob,

Great points and I've been thinking largely the same thing all season.

Last years team had more athleticism at the point and physicality at the 4 which helped that team win ugly games. Kaluma for all the ire that came his way was a physical x-factor. He'd flail around and get fouled, get a rebound, make a block that contributed to success. He just wasn't a great offensive fit for how Greg wants to play with Kalkbrenner being a key part of what we do and that showed at times. Nembhard, wasn't a great three point shooter, but the thing he provided that this team sorely needs is somebody that needs to be respected going downhill in a "non-broken" situation. Providence would not have been able to overplay EVERYTHING like they did if we had Nembhard.

This years team has a better Baylor, Trey is better and Kalkbrenner is better when he gets the ball. We have better shooters at the 1 and 4 by a long shot, but they lack ballhandling at the 1 and physicality at the 4. I like both of them, but it's a bit like Greg said, we need more shooting and went all in dismissing the fact that sometimes you need some guys that can make stuff happen when the shots weren't falling (I know he didn't, but that was the result). Ashworth, has done good things, he's generally playing better running the team, but he's not what we've become so spoiled by over the last decade (Chatman, Mo, Zegarowski, Nembhard). My first born child to have Zegarowski on this team .

This team has been entertaining, has won more big games than they've lost and are easy to root for. If they get the right matchups and the shots fall, they have the potential to get to the final 4, but if they play a team that has length, athleticism and gritty defense as their hallmarks, we could be out early. Providence used the blueprint, slow it down, make us become one on one players that can get downhill and control the boards. We're experienced and I think we'll play well against all the various styles. Ultimately, teams have to get used to playing us and we're a tough matchup if someone doesn't see us year in year out.

Go Jays!

[go_jays]

Everyone is talking about hitting our 3s... and that's certainly important. But I think overall, the first thing they need to do is focus on their defensive effort. When all is said and done, I think that is gonna be the factor that determines how deep of a run we make. Then comes rebounding and turnovers.

[Realhoops]

Everyone is talking about hitting our 3s... and that's certainly important. But I think overall, the first thing they need to do is focus on their defensive effort. When all is said and done, I think that is gonna be the factor that determines how deep of a run we make. Then comes rebounding and turnovers.

I put a long rambling post in the 2023-24 season thread. But the upshot is that if you want to see something that seems to be as accurate of a correlation to us winning or losing as anything it's eFG% (and wrapped up in that making threes). When we hit a very basic, normal eFG% of .50 (which more than 200 D1 teams have as their season average), we win at a clip of .88%. Our defense is basically good enough every single night that if we have a simply "average" offensive night for a D1 team we win. That usually equates to at least .30 on three pointers and when we hit at least 10 of them we rarely lose.

[Waylon Van Smack]

I like their path. CU/UCon in final. We have a bracket challenge going on anywhere?

[gtmoBlue]

I like their path. CU/UCon in final. We have a bracket challenge going on anywhere?

How sweet would that be! EE/FF = success to me this season. Still no BE/BET Championship this year (bummer).

CU v Uconn NCAA Final? Doesn't get any better'n that. A 'Ga-ran-teed' W for our Jays. SWEET. Make it happen.