Tournament Success

[bluejayfan00]

We obviously had huge expectations coming into the year. What would be the minimum needed to happen in the NCAAT for you to consider the season a success?

[BenningtonBluejay]

Sweet 16. You will be the better team the first two rounds. After that it is all about matchups and how the bracket falls

[3ontheway]

Feel like, still, our ceiling is realistically lower than what we showed last year. Can they put together 4 awesome games where they make a ton of 3's? Sure, its possible. We have 3 elite college players, and not much else. Relying on those 3 for 60 points and 30 boards every game in order to win is very tough against NCAA tourney teams. We have virtually no depth, and going against deeper teams presents a problem for us. Obviously SA came a long way from December/January version to now, but if he can't make 3's, in reality we are badly missing Nembhard and the variety and play making on the offensive end either getting to the rim or forcing defenders of Trey, Kalk, and Baylor to help, creating more offensive space for us.

Hopefully we shoot our way to the 2nd weekend and beyond!

Go Jays.

[JacobPadilla]

Feel like, still, our ceiling is realistically lower than what we showed last year. Can they put together 4 awesome games where they make a ton of 3's? Sure, its possible. We have 3 elite college players, and not much else. Relying on those 3 for 60 points and 30 boards every game in order to win is very tough against NCAA tourney teams. We have virtually no depth, and going against deeper teams presents a problem for us. Obviously SA came a long way from December/January version to now, but if he can't make 3's, in reality we are badly missing Nembhard and the variety and play making on the offensive end either getting to the rim or forcing defenders of Trey, Kalk, and Baylor to help, creating more offensive space for us.

Hopefully we shoot our way to the 2nd weekend and beyond!

Go Jays.

I reject the notion that their ceiling is lower. You can argue about where the mean is, but this year's team smacked arguably the best team in the country. If you can do that, in the way they did it, that indicates a pretty high ceiling to me. This year's adjusted efficiency margin is a couple points better than it was at the end of the season last year as well. Last year's team was 21-12 heading into the NCAA Tournament and this year's is 23-9.

This team is capable of playing at a really high level, which we seem to forget after every loss. Creighton is the 10th overall seed in Lunardi's latest projections, which indicates they've accomplished quite a bit this season. Good teams are going to lose earlier than they should because that's how the tournament works, and Creighton certainly could be one of them. But we don't need to head into this acting like Creighton has no shot.

[sdebole059]

Well we shouldn’t bank on playing a 15 seed again in the sweet 16. Also, with not winning a big east title in any sort of way, there should be a deep run for this season to have some sort of success

[3ontheway]

Feel like, still, our ceiling is realistically lower than what we showed last year. Can they put together 4 awesome games where they make a ton of 3's? Sure, its possible. We have 3 elite college players, and not much else. Relying on those 3 for 60 points and 30 boards every game in order to win is very tough against NCAA tourney teams. We have virtually no depth, and going against deeper teams presents a problem for us. Obviously SA came a long way from December/January version to now, but if he can't make 3's, in reality we are badly missing Nembhard and the variety and play making on the offensive end either getting to the rim or forcing defenders of Trey, Kalk, and Baylor to help, creating more offensive space for us.

Hopefully we shoot our way to the 2nd weekend and beyond!

Go Jays.

I reject the notion that their ceiling is lower. You can argue about where the mean is, but this year's team smacked arguably the best team in the country. If you can do that, in the way they did it, that indicates a pretty high ceiling to me. This year's adjusted efficiency margin is a couple points better than it was at the end of the season last year as well. Last year's team was 21-12 heading into the NCAA Tournament and this year's is 23-9.

This team is capable of playing at a really high level, which we seem to forget after every loss. Creighton is the 10th overall seed in Lunardi's latest projections, which indicates they've accomplished quite a bit this season. Good teams are going to lose earlier than they should because that's how the tournament works, and Creighton certainly could be one of them. But we don't need to head into this acting like Creighton has no shot.

Of course the Jays have a shot to make a deep run, they are capable of playing elite basketball, and you don't get to the 3 line (possibly 4) without having a very good year. Nothing in my post suggests they have no shot. They have 3 players that are elite and Kalk is a complete disaster for teams that are not accustomed to having a guy like that ruining offensive plays and schemes. I just said E8 or FF (which is extremely hard even when a dream draw like last year presents itself) is not what it would take for me to consider tournament success this year for this team. As I said in my post, sure it's possible. The thread is what would be deemed tournament success and I voted (along with the vast majority) Sweet 16.

The efficiency numbers do suggest a ceiling equal to, at a minimum, last year so we will see where the chips fall. I voted for myself sweet 16 would define tourney success. Here's hoping the 3's are falling at a high enough clip to go past last year's great run.

[jayc13]

Great points Jacob!

Who at this point last year would've had the Jays a basket away from a FF and a decent (better than SDSU's) chance to win it all? And after the (way) underperforming regular season uconn had, that they would steamroll through the tournament?

I know I didn't.

[cujaysfan]

What last version of the Jays showed they can do vs this team is get it done over top teams away from home. Even during the kalk illness we were toe to toe and winning games against Arkansas, Arizona, and Texas.

Buckle up. It's time to play our best basketball. We're capable

[DC_JAY]

I would be pleased with another Sweet Sixteen. Last year felt like catching lightning in a bottle. Dismantling Baylor was amazing, but the Jays had a lot of help from the Bracket gods after that. I'm not sure the Jays will ever be so close to winning a national title, as it's easy to forget that if they got past SDSU, they had a very winnable game in the Final Four and had already beaten the eventual champion in the regular season.

Getting to the Sweet Sixteen three times in four years would be incredible and cement this group's legacy among the all-time greats at Creighton.

In last year's run, different players put the team on their backs at key moments. Kalk took over the game against NC State, scoring 31. Next it was Nembhard's turn against Baylor, shooting 4-6 from three and scoring 30. Against Princeton, the Big Three combined for 62. They are going to need to do the same this year.

Compared to last year's team, the lack of a bench isn't so worrying, as last year's starters also played a ton. And while Ashworth is in a slump, I think he can recover. For me, it's the 4 spot that separates the two squads.

Last year in the tournament, Kaluma was solid:

10 pts, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 block (2 TOs) against NC State
11 pts, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block (4 TOs) against Baylor
10 pts, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block (2 TOs) against Princeton
12 pts, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal (2 TOs) against SDSU

Consistent contributions to scoring and boards. We miss that, especially against the longer and more athletic teams. Not to be defeatist, but I do think last year's squad was a more complete team. That's not to say this team can't do damage. If they play with focus, they can beat anyone.

[Jayday]

I would be pleased with another Sweet Sixteen. Last year felt like catching lightning in a bottle. Dismantling Baylor was amazing, but the Jays had a lot of help from the Bracket gods after that. I'm not sure the Jays will ever be so close to winning a national title, as it's easy to forget that if they got past SDSU, they had a very winnable game in the Final Four and had already beaten the eventual champion in the regular season.

Getting to the Sweet Sixteen three times in four years would be incredible and cement this group's legacy among the all-time greats at Creighton.

In last year's run, different players put the team on their backs at key moments. Kalk took over the game against NC State, scoring 31. Next it was Nembhard's turn against Baylor, shooting 4-6 from three and scoring 30. Against Princeton, the Big Three combined for 62. They are going to need to do the same this year.

Compared to last year's team, the lack of a bench isn't so worrying, as last year's starters also played a ton. And while Ashworth is in a slump, I think he can recover. For me, it's the 4 spot that separates the two squads.

Last year in the tournament, Kaluma was solid:

10 pts, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 block (2 TOs) against NC State
11 pts, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block (4 TOs) against Baylor
10 pts, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block (2 TOs) against Princeton
12 pts, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal (2 TOs) against SDSU

Consistent contributions to scoring and boards. We miss that, especially against the longer and more athletic teams. Not to be defeatist, but I do think last year's squad was a more complete team. That's not to say this team can't do damage. If they play with focus, they can beat anyone.

I agree I think Ashworth can absolutely recover from his slump and be a positive for us again. I will admit I had my doubts with him early in the year but he has shown flashes of what he can do. I feel like he gives us a high ceiling when he is on but also a lower floor than R2. Lets hope he is hitting his open 3's in the tourney and I think the sweet 16 is a lock and we can beat anyone. I also am not looking at those stat lines of Kaluma and thinking there is no way Miller/Green/Traudt cannot get pretty close to that.